Quercus says digital sales could reach 10% in 2011

Ever since we created our e-book bestseller charts and didn't put a Stieg Larsson title at number one, I've been conscious that Quercus must be one of the biggest digital publishers around, with a marketshare well beyond what they have in the print space (in 2010 Quercus took 1.4% of the Total Consumer Market as measured by Nielsen BookScan).

Today's full-year result pretty much confirm this suspicion.

E-book sales increased 16-fold in 2010, representing 3% of revenue (or £1m), and Quercus said they could reach 10% in the current year. Furthermore, the company reports that the last quarter of 2010 saw a step change in the rate of sales, which has continued into 2011.

"The surge of digital sales that began in the last quarter of 2010 has continued and we believe that 2011 will mark a step change in consumer behaviour."

My colleague Lisa has provided this update for theBookseller.com: Quercus has nearly matched the £1m digital revenue it made from e-books last year in the first three months of 2011.

I've already written that bullish trade house have been upscaling their digital projections for the year. This is more confirmation, following Random House's statement last week that digital sales were outstripping all expectations, that we are now following a similar flight path to that seen in the US, which was at 8% to 10% last year.

What does it mean that 10% of trade book sales will be digital by year-end? We'll know more in 8 months. But in the short term it means a greater marketshare for Amazon (remember Stieg Larsson isn't even available on the iBookstore); smaller print runs for the big titles; decreasing sales for high street booksellers; and bigger margins for book publishers (particularly for those not on agency).

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